Solar storm watches are often compared to tornado watches, but in many ways a solar storm is more comparable to a hurricane. For instance, a solar storm affects large regions, even whole worlds, rather than a single settlement. In addition, there is a period of time when the mass of charged particles can be seen inbound, which allows for some emergency preparations similar to boarding up houses and evacuating communities.
But one of the biggest problems with solar storm forecasting is the continuing uncertainty about the mechanisms that drive them. As a result, there are times when even senior solar astronomers disagree about the proper interpretation of solar magnetic field activity, and thus the probability of additional solar storms after a strong flare or CME is detected.
This situation creates an ambiguity about solar weather that can often be even more of a strain on the people who are affected by it, especially settlers on the Moon and Mars, but also people working in orbit. While people who live and work up here have to be able to make their peace with risk, ambiguity is something that is inherently stressful. Not knowing from hour to hour whether conditions will be safe for vital activities, especially when one is accustomed to accurate and reliable weather forecasting, becomes extraordinarily stressful.
As a result, we soon learned to watch for signs of unusual stress among the settlement population whenever we had an extended period of unsettled space weather, and particularly when our experts in the Astronomy Department were not in agreement with astronomers on Earth. Given the close quarters in which we were all living, it didn’t take long for support staff in the sciences to pick up the senior scientists’ uncertainty and pass it throughout the whole community.
—- Barbara Bhin Thi Thuc, MD, Col. USMC. Memories of a Frontier Physician. Carpenter Point, Cycho Crater: Kennedy University Press, 2044.