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Breaking Strain

There is a saying that trouble never comes as single spies, but entire espionage agencies. That is, that you seldom have only one problem. The first problem puts a strain on the weak places in your systems, which then cause additional problems. Sometimes this is a rapid failure cascade, but often it is a sort of slip-slide into oblivion.

We see both types of expanding trouble in the Big Sick. For instance, a number of countries appear to have had rapid breakdowns of their public services when relatively small numbers of key individuals fell sick. These situations show a strong correlation with two key factors: 1. heavy dependence upon a few key technical experts as opposed to a generalized level of technical competence throughout the population and 2. weak social trust beyond the immediate social circle of extended family, clan, or tribe.

By contrast, in countries in which familiarity with advanced technology was widespread throughout the culture, and in which trust tended to be generalized, failures spread slowly rather than catastrophically. When someone fell ill, there were enough people with some of the necessary knowledge that equipment could be kept running, and people trusted them to work with this valuable equipment and not steal it to enrich their own families or clans.

As a result, communities with a high level of trust were able to patch together solutions that kept things working far longer. Instead of a catastrophic failure cascade, they experienced a slow deterioration as solutions became increasingly patchwork, like a garment that has been repaired so many times that it becomes difficult to find solid material to attach further patches.

—– Randall Littleton, essay answer in Civics quiz